The Great Freeze of American Housing

Only 2.8% of homes changed hands in 2025 - the lowest turnover in three decades.

Supply isn’t scarce by accident. It’s trapped by math.

Over 70% of owners hold mortgages below 5%, unwilling to enter a 6% world.

- Buyers can’t afford to chase.
- Sellers can’t afford to move.

The economy sits in a quiet standoff - equity rich, liquidity poor.

What it means:

The housing market has entered a structural stalemate.

Every rate cut from here won’t just ease inflation, it’ll unfreeze trillions in locked capital.
But until that happens, mobility, construction, and credit creation remain throttled.
A generation of homeowners now live in financial cages built by their own low rates.

Exactly! this “freeze” is mathematical. equity has to be able to move without penalty otherwise the market can’t breathe. (i always appreciate your insight!)

Great post Duriel. Unfortunately, I don't think we are going to see any significant rate cuts in the near future, as the government is using rates as inflation leverage.