Migration within the United States declined for the third consecutive year in the third quarter of 2025, according to Bank of America account data, with fewer individuals moving across states or metropolitan areas. Instead, more Americans are opting for intracity moves, especially in the Midwest and western Sunbelt cities, where affordability and infrastructure investments remain attractive. This migration slowdown, combined with a surge in residential construction in recent years, has driven up rental vacancy rates in key markets across the South and West.
As a result, growth in median rent payments has slowed to near zero, offering financial relief to renters despite persistent inflation in reported rental prices. Bank of America card data shows that lower-income renters, in particular, are benefiting from this cooling, which is helping to offset slower wage growth and boost discretionary spending. Homeownership rates have continued to decline, falling below early 2020 levels, as rising mortgage costs discourage buying and more households opt to rent. Cities that previously saw rapid population inflows, such as Austin, Phoenix, and Miami, are now experiencing either stagnant or declining rent payments.
These dynamics point to a shift in bargaining power toward renters as housing supply begins to outpace demand in several overheated markets.
Why it matters
With vacancies rising and fewer people relocating, the housing market is shifting in ways that real estate and lending professionals can’t afford to ignore. The leverage is moving away from sellers and landlords and toward renters, especially in markets where supply has outpaced demand. This means the strategies that worked during the housing surge of the past few years may no longer apply. Going forward, success will depend on understanding local market conditions, adjusting expectations, and responding to more selective, value-conscious renters.
Read the full Bank of America report
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Expanding the Renter Pool Without Expanding Risk
