Housing Market Losing Momentum Just as Spring Season Begins

The U.S. housing market is entering the spring selling season with less momentum than many expected.

Existing home sales declined -3.6% month-over-month in March, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, the lowest level since June 2025.

This wasn’t a marginal pullback.

It marked the second-largest monthly decline since November 2022, reinforcing how sensitive transaction volume remains to macro conditions.

📊 Regional Breakdown Signals Broader Weakness

Northeast: Fell to the lowest level on record (data back to 1999)
Midwest: Matched its weakest reading since 2011

This is not isolated, it’s broad-based softness across key regions.

⚠️ Timing Matters

What makes this more notable:

- This decline occurred before the recent rise in mortgage rates, driven by geopolitical instability and energy price shocks tied to the Iran conflict.

In other words, the market softened before affordability tightened again.

📉 Forward Expectations Are Being Repriced

The National Association of Realtors has already adjusted its outlook:

2026 existing home sales forecast revised from +14% → +4%

That’s a meaningful reset and it reflects a market recalibrating to:

- Higher-for-longer interest rates
- Reduced purchasing power
- Elevated macro uncertainty

🧠 Asset-Level Implication

This is not a collapse narrative, it’s a shift in liquidity and transaction velocity.

In this environment:

- Pricing precision becomes critical
- Days on market expand outside of prime assets
- Buyer demand becomes increasingly rate-sensitive
- Execution, not exposure, drives outcomes

The market is still functioning.
But it’s no longer forgiving.