The latest housing data reveals something more important than simply "sales are slowing."

The U.S. housing market is increasingly becoming a tale of two buyers.

Pending home sales fell 2.3% in July, versus expectations for a 0.6% increase. Activity is now nearly 25% below pre-pandemic norms, with July producing one of the weakest sales levels on record for the month.

The pressure point is clear: affordability.

Mortgage rates remain in the 6% range while home prices sit near record levels. For the traditional buyer, the monthly payment simply does not work.

But look further up the market, and the story changes.

Luxury is still moving.

Sales above $1 million increased approximately 14% year over year, while the median sale price reached a July record of roughly $434,000.

That divergence matters.

Higher-net-worth buyers are generally less sensitive to financing costs, while rate-dependent buyers are being squeezed by the combination of elevated prices and borrowing costs.

And this is where I see opportunity developing.
Lower price points in portions of the South and West are beginning to correct, potentially creating more attractive entry points for investors with liquidity, patience and the ability to negotiate.

Construction data adds another layer:
• Building permits: +5.0% to 1.443M • Housing starts: -12.4% to 1.239M

Meanwhile, import prices declined 0.4% and export prices fell 1.3%, providing another signal worth watching on the inflation front.

My takeaway:
Don't analyze this housing market through national averages alone.

We are moving into a market increasingly defined by price point, geography, leverage and access to capital.

And when transaction volume falls this dramatically, opportunity often shifts toward the buyer who has the capital and discipline to act while others cannot.

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