📊 June 2026 CPI Report

• Headline CPI: 3.5% year over year, below expectations of 3.8% • Core CPI: 2.6% year over year, below expectations of 2.8% • Month over month CPI: -0.4%, the largest monthly decline since May 2020

Markets responded immediately, with U.S. stock futures moving sharply higher as investors reassessed the outlook for inflation, interest rates, and Federal Reserve policy.

A closer look at year over year price changes:

⛽ Fuel Oil: +42.9% ⛽ Gasoline: +26.7% ⚡ Electricity: +4.0% 👕 Apparel: +3.9% 📈 Overall CPI: +3.5% 🍽️ Food Away From Home: +3.4% 🚚 Transportation: +3.4% 🏠 Shelter: +3.3% 🔥 Gas Utilities: +3.0% 🏥 Medical Care: +2.9% 🛒 Food at Home: +2.7% 🚗 New Cars: +0.5% 🚘 Used Cars: -1.8%

While inflation continues to moderate, the data also highlights that several essential household expenses remain elevated, particularly energy-related costs. This reinforces the importance of looking beyond the headline number when evaluating the health of the economy.

For investors and commercial real estate professionals, today's report may influence expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve decisions, Treasury yields, financing costs, cap rates, and overall capital markets activity.
The key question now is whether this marks the beginning of a sustained disinflation trend or simply another step in what has been a volatile inflation cycle.

What are your expectations for the Federal Reserve's next meeting?