April CPI inflation surged to 3.8%, its highest level since May 2023, while Core CPI rose to 2.8%, above expectations of 2.7%.

The narrative that inflation was fully under control is beginning to crack.

What's especially concerning is where inflation is accelerating:

• Energy Commodities: +29.2% • Gasoline: +28.4% • Airfare: +20.7% • Energy Overall: +17.9% • Electricity: +6.1% • Fruits & Vegetables: +6.1% • Hospital Services: +5.5% • Motor Vehicle Repairs: +5.1% • Apparel: +4.2%

This is not isolated inflation.

This is broad-based pressure across transportation, utilities, healthcare, food, and consumer essentials, the categories Americans interact with daily.

Since 2020, cumulative inflation has reached approximately +29%, meaning:

➡️ A product that cost $100 in 2020 now costs roughly $129 today.

The longer-term inflation damage becomes even more visible when examining five-year price increases:

• New Cars: +20% • Groceries: +26% • Family Health Insurance: +27% • Shelter: +29% • Restaurants: +30% • Home Prices: +37% • Electricity: +39% • Eggs: +39% • Gas Utilities: +42% • Gasoline: +42% • Transportation: +43% • Auto Insurance: +58% • Fuel Oil: +63% • Ground Beef: +68% • Coffee: +105%

Markets are now rapidly repricing expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and odds of additional rate hikes are climbing.

For commercial real estate, housing, and broader capital markets, this matters significantly:

• Higher-for-longer rates pressure valuations • Consumer purchasing power weakens • Debt costs remain elevated • Cap rate expansion risks persist • Insurance and operating expenses continue rising

The inflation cycle may be entering a second wave, one increasingly tied to energy, supply chains, and geopolitical pressures rather than purely demand-side stimulus.