Every market moves through Recovery, Expansion, Hyper Supply, and Recession. The investors who win aren't just watching the cycle they're anticipating it. Here's how to avoid mistakes, thrive, and predict what's next:

The 4 Phases of the Real Estate Cycle

1️⃣ Recovery
Avoid: Overpaying too soon while fundamentals are still shaky.
Thrive: Target undervalued, distressed, or mismanaged assets that can be stabilized. Focus on core markets with job growth.
Predict: Look for declining vacancies, stabilizing rents, and early leasing activity. Watch capital markets when lenders re-enter, recovery is underway.

2️⃣ Expansion
Avoid: Chasing deals at peak pricing just because the market is hot.
Thrive: Ride the growth, invest in value-add and development, lock in long-term fixed debt, and scale operations.
Predict: Track rent growth, strong absorption, declining concessions, and a surge in building permits.

3️⃣ Hyper Supply
Avoid: Launching new construction projects without deep absorption studies. Oversupply kills margins.
Thrive: Shift to defensive assets (credit tenants, necessity retail, multifamily with affordable rents). Sell weaker assets and strengthen balance sheets.
Predict: Watch for rising vacancies, flattening rents, and lenders tightening leverage. Building cranes outnumber tenants.

4️⃣ Recession
Avoid: Catching a falling knife, don't buy just because prices are dropping. Many assets will fall further.
Thrive: Position capital for distressed acquisitions. Partner with lenders on workouts or buy notes at discounts. Focus on liquidity and patient capital.
Predict: Watch consumer spending, job losses, rising cap rates, and distressed listings. The Fed often signals the turn when they begin rate cuts.

The best investors don't fear the cycle, they map their strategies around it. Timing + discipline = long-term wealth.