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Maybe There's More than One Story in Rising Mid-Tier Apartment Demand

Maybe There's More than One Story in Rising Mid-Tier Apartment Demand

One of the most encouraging results seen in the country's apartment market during 2010's first half was a notable upturn in demand for middle-tier product. Previously, almost all the absorption occurring across the country was being captured at the very top end of the market, reflecting new completions moving through initial lease-up as well as high-end units attracting move-up renters via price cuts.

Looking specifically at 1980s-generation developments, the middle of the product spectrum in most metros, occupancy across the nation as a whole climbed 2 percentage points during 2010's initial six months, improving from 91.7 percent to 93.7 percent. At least a little bit of growth occurred virtually everywhere, and the jump was more than 3 percentage points in select areas like Upstate South Carolina's Greenville area, San Antonio, Kansas City and Nashville.

An especially interesting shift in 1980s-era apartment occupancy registered during recent months in metro Atlanta. While those units were just 91.3 percent occupied as of mid-2010, the performance in the sector improved by 2.9 percentage points from the late 2009 result. Making the change especially intriguing, almost all the upturn occurred in just a few neighborhoods, specifically the arc stretching from Gwinnett County across the Roswell/Alpharetta area and into eastern Cobb County. That's a cluster of product that on the surface would seem to face a particularly difficult road to recovery, since it lies amid a huge selection of now really, really cheap single-family homes offered both for sale and for lease in very large numbers.

What does the jump in 1980s-generation product in Atlanta's northern first-ring suburbs say about those areas?

Maybe nothing in particular, as this shift basically could just be a reflection of what's happened in the local economy. Atlanta did add a decent block of new jobs during the first half of the year, which is what helped spread apartment demand from the top tier of product down to the middle tier of communities, and the submarkets that captured that demand do tend to have lots of comparatively appealing 1980s-vintage apartment choices.

However, it's possible that the demand momentum seen for middle-tier product in Gwinnett County, the northern sliver of Fulton County and eastern Cobb County actually tells a much bigger story. Average monthly rents for 1980s-era units in those areas have been reduced to about $650 to $700, low enough for this cluster of neighborhoods to attract quite a few residents who previously could only afford the metro's least-desirable apartment options that tend to be concentrated in areas like South Atlanta and eastern DeKalb County. The pattern could accelerate a meaningful shift in resident characteristics that's already been in process for a while as these first-ring suburbs continue to evolve. If that's the case, there could be some pretty profound long-term impact from what's happening now. Property managers will have to adapt operational practices to serve a new primary customer, for example. Furthermore, there's some question whether the new resident base could come to be dominated by households who will struggle to pay higher rents once occupancy firms further.

These neighborhoods certainly are ones to watch over the coming months, as it's unclear whether today's short-term gains actually are a reflection of much more than just a somewhat improved local economy.

A portion of the data used in this post is acquired through property management software, which provides property owners and managers the ability to report baseline statistics to county recorder's offices, news publications, and other reporting agencies. Improvements to property management systems will allow us, collectively, to better track occupancy and rent/price fluctuations at the city and county level going forward.

Apartment Market Dynamics is an examination of key influences on the apartment industry by MPF Research, the industry's most trusted source of apartment market intelligence. To receive the latest Apartment Market Dynamics newsletter in your e-mail inbox, please click here to subscribe.

 

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