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NMHC Annual Meeting Review: The Next Chapter Starts

NMHC Annual Meeting Review: The Next Chapter Starts

NMHC Annual Meeting Review: The Next Chapter Starts

I just returned from the 2021 NMHC Annual Meeting in San Diego (six months deferred from its customary time). I can't help but reflect on our industry's resilience and the rapid changes happening as we now have more than 62% of the eligible US population (12 and older) with at least one vaccination.

First, we must congratulate Doug Bibby and the entire NMHC team for pulling off an amazingly successful conference. To my knowledge, it was the first face-to-face meeting of its kind since the pandemic started. The necessity of limiting this to 2,500 people became a strength as several veterans commented on how it felt much more intimate, much like the conferences in Palm Springs and Boca Raton before the event outgrew those venues.

Having decided to put the event on long before we knew how few new cases would be coming each day, NMHC had strong protocols in place. In particular, there was a requirement to either validate vaccination status ahead of the conference or submit to daily testing. It led me to two observations about the post-pandemic world:

  1. If you're wondering whether the fear of breakthrough infections or other unknown variants will affect behavior, the answer for the moment is a resounding no. Once in the NMHC bubble, there were few masks in sight, other than on Hyatt and NMHC staff. Personally, I have been very risk-averse in the past 16 months, but I wasn't really bothered by this at all. Given my vaccination status and knowledge of NMHC's protocols, I felt safe and gained confidence that we will see a quick return to normalcy.
  2. Will we return to handshakes and hugs or stick with fist bumps and elbow touches? Score this one for handshakes and hugs. I recall one fist bump over the three days and didn't try to count the handshakes and hugs. Western societal social norms are simply strong enough to last through 16 months and reappear on the other side!

Turning to the conference content and what I heard during a variety of meetings, several items stood out to me:

  • Not surprisingly, proptech is on everyone's minds. Much of it is focused on prospect and resident experience. And while most executives don't want to scare their employees, it's as clear as day that most communities will employ fewer associates 3-5 years from now than they currently do. I don't think there will ever be mass layoffs from this; rather, as companies implement more self-serve and other labor-saving technology and processes, they simply will rehire fewer positions upon associate turnover.
  • NMHC's efforts on diversity and inclusion are beginning to pay off, at least when it comes to gender equity. I met with more senior executive women at this conference than ever before. That said, increased racial diversity in senior ranks of our industry continues to lag far behind gender diversity.
  • There was a lively discussion about returning to offices. While there was a wide variety of specific opinions, the general consensus was that the biggest challenge with work-from-home is developing and maintaining culture, especially with new associates. Most panel participants were already having a partial return to the office, expecting a major return in the fall. Some will go hybrid (3 office/2 home) as the norm, while others will expect full office attendance.
  • The session finished with a discussion of the hottest topic in rental housing this year: single-family rentals (SFR) and the growing build to rent (BTR) market. Capital is flowing into this space in record numbers, and many multifamily operators and funds are more than dipping their toes into the space. It will be very interesting to see how this evolves over the next year, especially as we expect multifamily to return to more normal trends.
Finishing on a personal note, I will just say that it was great to get out of my house and see so many colleagues and friends. Hopefully, this trend will continue as we enter what is expected to be a much busier summer and fall conference season!
 
This comment was minimized by the moderator on the site

I appreciate your recap of the conference, Donald. This observation is startling to me: "...it's as clear as day that most communities will employ fewer associates 3-5 years from now than they currently do." I have 101 questions about how management companies will manage that evolution. In my nearly 30 years in the business, staffing levels have not really varied; this would be a significant change.

  Kara Rice
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It's already changing. AvalonBay announced a few quarters ago that there use of AI agents (MeetElise for them) has allowed them to crack the old "1 for 100" front office staffing model. And last Nov, they opened the first-ever "self serve" (i.e. no onsite staff) concept property. Check out https://www.multifamilyexecutive.com/property-management/apartment-trends/avalonbay-operates-a-self-serve-community-in-rockville-md_o

As noted in my blog, I see this evolving and adjusting through attrition so I expect few (if any) direct layoffs. But there will be fewer leasing associates as technology replaces many of the things they do today.

  Donald Davidoff
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Appreciate the intel, Donald. So very glad to hear the industry was out in force at the conference. I had a feeling conferences would come roaring back, but glad to see it actually happening.

  Jonas Bordo
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Yes, it was quite inspiring how much it came back!

  Donald Davidoff
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Loved reading this, David, and especially happy to hear that the NMHC Annual meeting was a success. I do wonder if, even with all of the amazing technology available to the industry, we will actually see a decrease in the size of site teams. It may simply be an opportunity for the industry to divest these team members of the tedious tasks and refocus time and effort on both resident relations and closing new leases. As for the SFR and BTR, I love seeing these new verticals explode - they are a much-needed option for renters.

  Judy Bellack
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Thanks for the comment, Judy. Call me a cynic, but I think most execs will not spend money on tech purely to allow associates to "focus on higher value efforts" rather than reducing costs Or at least some combination of cost reduction and better use of time. It will be very interesting to watch AVB's "people-less" property and see how that extreme example plays out. Whatever the case, there are already at least several companies underwriting fewer than the old average of "1 for 100" front office team members.

  Donald Davidoff
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Oh, I agree that execs will be looking for ROI and some will do this by minimizing staff . . . I also think some will create that ROI by leveraging tech to improve operations, attain higher renewal rates, realize maintenance efficiencies and so on.

  Judy Bellack
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Well, as much as I may agree with you that Leasing will face attrition due to tech, I will say I liken this to doing your own check out at the grocery store. While it can be convenient, it is often annoying and doesn't work "quite" right. And when you have a lot of groceries, it is just plain annoying. While it may eventually be what it will be, I think those that maintain a high enough level of actual people helping will fair by far the best in terms of perceived customer service and a bettered customer experience. So much of the resident experience is around issues...while AI can aid in process, it certainly can't face the myriad of issues that so many face in day-to-day problems of an average resident. I feel this is such a "big corporate" way of doing business, that ultimately impacts said corporation very badly. Hopefully AI will catch up before companies' reputations take a major hit and residents become even further disgruntled with our industry.

  Krista Washbourne
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I think the grocery store self-checkout is a great analogy for what will happen. The spread of those checkouts have resulted in fewer checkout clerks per store...but NOT zero. The AVB concept property is interesting but not likely to become the norm. I believe there will still be associates on site in most communities five years from now...just not quite as many. Same as grocery stores, same as hotel check in desks and same as airline agent counters at the airport. Thanks for contributing to this important conversation!

  Donald Davidoff

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