The data for investors is clear: National multifamily headlines are averaging out a story that isn't average at all.

Asking prices for U.S. multifamily properties are moving in different directions, and the gap between the strongest and weakest markets is larger than many investors think. LoopNet data from 93 cities between November 2025 and March 2026 shows a difference of over 60 percentage points between the top and bottom performers.

Baltimore's prices are up 29%, while St. Louis's are down 33%. These are very different investment situations. Using national averages only can lead to uninformed decisions.

Here's what the data actually shows, and how to use it to make smarter capital allocation decisions.

One Variable Explains Most of the Split

Before getting into the city-by-city numbers, it helps to understand what's actually driving the divergence: local supply.

Sun Belt and Midwest markets absorbed a historically large wave of new multifamily inventory between 2023 and 2025. When that amount of new supply hits a market, operators have to compete for tenants, often through rent concessions and discounting. Lower rents mean lower net operating income (NOI). Lower NOI means buyers won't pay top dollar, and sellers eventually have to adjust asking prices down to get deals done.

On the other hand, Northeast and coastal markets had little new development due to high construction costs, tough regulations, and limited land. With fewer new units, there was less competition for tenants, which kept rents steady and supported property values.

These trends come from the supply cycle. When supply is limited, asking prices rise. When there's too much supply, prices drop. National averages often hide these local differences. 

The Numbers, City by City

Here's what the data looks like across markets that had at least 20 active multifamily listings in both November 2025 and March 2026:

Markets where asking prices rose:

• Baltimore: +29%
• Washington, D.C.: +26%
• Jersey City: +18%
• North Hollywood: +18%
• Philadelphia: +11%
• San Francisco: +11%

Markets where asking prices fell:

• Saint Louis: -33%
• Atlanta: -23%
• Denver: -19%
• Sacramento: -18%
• Austin: -13%
• Houston: -10%

The Northeast and coastal markets dominate the top of that list. Sun Belt and Midwest markets dominate the bottom. The pattern holds consistently enough that supply conditions, not interest rates, not local economies in isolation, are the primary lens to understand where prices are going. 

A Falling Asking Price Isn't an Automatic Concern

 Some investors might quickly write off markets like Atlanta (-23%) or Denver (-19%). But lower prices in oversupplied markets aren't always a deal breaker. The main question is whether the market can absorb the extra inventory before you plan to sell.

Sun Belt markets continue to benefit from strong long-term demand fundamentals, including job growth, population inflows, and household formation. These factors, which previously supported multifamily outperformance and attracted new construction, remain in place. The market now requires time to absorb the recent supply increase.

Long-term demand is important. For example, Austin is expected to absorb new supply through 2026 and into 2027. Holding a property for two years in this market has a different risk than holding for five to seven years, which matches a full lease cycle.

The key question is whether employment growth and household formation trends will support demand recovery before your exit window.

If the answer is yes, and you can buy at a meaningful discount to what the market will support in three to four years, compressed entry prices may offer better long-term returns for investors whose underwriting supports that thesis.

Rising Markets Come With Their Own Math Problem

Supply-constrained markets, like D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia, aren't automatic wins either. Higher asking prices mean tighter cap rates, which means less room for error in your underwriting assumptions.

Source: LoopNet listing data, November 2025–March 2026. Cap rate data from LoopNet's Most Profitable Cities for Multifamily Investments in 2026.

Baltimore's higher cap rate and lower average price attract investors looking for a strong cash flow with less money upfront. On the other hand, D.C.'s higher prices and lower cap rate appeal to those willing to pay more for a bigger demand base and long-term stability in a market with limited supply.

Both strategies are valid but take different approaches. The risk is assuming that rising prices alone make a good investment, without thinking about how lower cap rates could affect returns if the market shifts. 

What to Consider During Due Diligence

Given this split, here are the questions to consider when evaluating a multifamily market right now:

1. What's already in the local supply pipeline? Permits and units already under construction will keep hitting the market regardless of what developers decide to do next. The slowdown in new starts matters for 2027 and beyond, but it doesn't help absorb what's already been built. Before you underwrite a recovery thesis in any oversupplied market, get a clear picture of what's scheduled to deliver in the next 24 to 36 months.

2. Are jobs and people moving to this market? Robust employment growth and consistent in-migration produce a tenant base that combats vacancy and supports rent stabilization. If a market is oversupplied but has a strong job market and population growth, recovery is faster.

3. Does your holding period coincide with the market's absorption timeline? A common underwriting error occurs when normalization requires 36 months, but the planned exit is in 24 months, increasing the risk of missing potential upside and encountering market uncertainty.

4. In supply-constrained markets, how much protection does your cap rate offer? Tight supply supports seller pricing power but compresses cap rates, reducing your margin for error. A 7% cap rate is reasonable with consistent, data-supported rent growth. But if your investment thesis depends solely on supply constraints without strong demand growth behind it, even a single weak quarter can undermine your projections. 

The Bigger Picture

The multifamily market isn't broken; it's split into two.

Investors who rely on national headlines to make local decisions are going to keep getting surprised, either by markets that look strong on paper but are quietly repricing, or by distressed-looking markets that are quietly setting up solid risk-adjusted entries.

The data from the multifamily asking price analysis across 93 cities makes one thing clear: where you buy matters as much as what you buy. Local supply, renter demand, and cap rate spreads are telling a more precise story than any national average could.

Read the local market. Model the supply cycle. Match your hold period to the absorption timeline.