Renting remains substantially cheaper than owning, but the affordability gap is only part of what's supporting apartment demand.
The average monthly cost of owning a home was $3,070 in the second quarter, compared with $1,894 for renting an apartment, according to Newmark. That's a $1,176 monthly...
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Yardi Matrix raised its 2026 multifamily supply forecast 2.5% to 490,362 units, with national completions still expected to bottom in 2027 near 444,343 units. Read at the aggregate level, this looks like confirmation that oversupply is resolving.
The composition tells a different story. Compared to 2020, 2027 market-rate supply will actually run 11% lower. Affordable and partially affordable product is holding the national total up, running 22%...Yardi Matrix raised its 2026 multifamily supply forecast 2.5% to 490,362 units, with national completions still expected to bottom in 2027 near 444,343 units. Read at the aggregate level, this looks like confirmation that oversupply is resolving.
The composition tells a different story. Compared to 2020, 2027 market-rate supply will actually run 11% lower. Affordable and partially affordable product is holding the national total up, running 22% and 44% above 2020 levels respectively, which means the aggregate number understates how much relief is occurring in market-rate apartments specifically.
Worth watching underneath the headline: the under-construction pipeline is shrinking overall, but that's driven by the more de-risked, pre-leased portion finishing up. The less-de-risked, not-yet-preleased segment rose 11.5% year-over-year. And 21 markets, including Southwest Florida Coast, Miami, and Charlotte, still carry over 8% of stock under construction.
National supply data tells you what's happening in general. It doesn't tell you what's coming down the street.
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Source: Yardi Matrix Multifamily Supply Forecast Notes, Q3 2026
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The Wall Street Journal ran the numbers on New York City's rent-stabilized housing. The headline: the biggest discounts go to the wealthiest tenants, not the ones the system was built to protect.
Good story for a fairness debate.
Wrong headline if you underwrite multifamily.
The number that actually matters on a rent roll is this: the discount isn't citywide. It's borough-specific.
Manhattan stabilized units rent for about half of market...The Wall Street Journal ran the numbers on New York City's rent-stabilized housing. The headline: the biggest discounts go to the wealthiest tenants, not the ones the system was built to protect.
Good story for a fairness debate.
Wrong headline if you underwrite multifamily.
The number that actually matters on a rent roll is this: the discount isn't citywide. It's borough-specific.
Manhattan stabilized units rent for about half of market. Brooklyn's discount is roughly 24%. Queens is 13%. The Bronx is 12%.
A pro forma that applies one mark-to-market assumption across all four boroughs is flawed before you've even opened the T-12.
It also challenges the standard turnover assumption. Underwriters often view stabilized units as future upside: tenants move out, rents reset closer to market, and NOI improves.
That logic weakens when a tenant is paying thousands below market. The greatest mark-to-market opportunity may also be the least likely to materialize because those tenants have the strongest incentive to stay.
Rent stabilization is a submarket variable, not a constant. Pull the borough-level discount before you pull the trend line.
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Multifamily construction is slowing, but the projects getting built continue to grow larger while staying overwhelmingly low-rise.
Total multifamily completions fell from 591,000 units in 2024 to 468,000 units in 2025, with the pullback concentrated in smaller properties. Completions in 5-49 unit...
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Halfway through 2026, I keep hearing that multifamily is turning the corner.
The data says we're not there yet.
Nearly 1.3 million units remain in lease-up nationally. First-quarter absorption came in at 72,000 units against a two-year quarterly average of 136,000. Phoenix is forecast to finish the year down 6.2%. Austin is off 14.7% since 2023.
But New York is up 18.4% over the same period. Chicago is up 13.3%. The Twin Cities are forecast to...Halfway through 2026, I keep hearing that multifamily is turning the corner.
The data says we're not there yet.
Nearly 1.3 million units remain in lease-up nationally. First-quarter absorption came in at 72,000 units against a two-year quarterly average of 136,000. Phoenix is forecast to finish the year down 6.2%. Austin is off 14.7% since 2023.
But New York is up 18.4% over the same period. Chicago is up 13.3%. The Twin Cities are forecast to finish 2026 up 4.6%.
This is not a national story. It never was.
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Most mortgage professionals are still using AI like an upgraded search engine.
They ask a question, get an answer, and move on.
The real value isn't in finding the best platform. It's in knowing which platform to use for which job.
We already think this way in lending. A DSCR loan, SBA loan, bridge loan, and stabilized multifamily refinance all solve different problems. AI is no different.
In my own business:
• ChatGPT helps me review grammar,...Most mortgage professionals are still using AI like an upgraded search engine.
They ask a question, get an answer, and move on.
The real value isn't in finding the best platform. It's in knowing which platform to use for which job.
We already think this way in lending. A DSCR loan, SBA loan, bridge loan, and stabilized multifamily refinance all solve different problems. AI is no different.
In my own business:
• ChatGPT helps me review grammar, structure, and flow.
• Claude is my go-to for longer documents, spreadsheets, PowerPoint presentations, and more complex projects.
• Perplexity is where I verify data, research market trends, and fact-check information.
I'll often have one platform review the work of another, much like having multiple analysts review a transaction before it goes to a lender.
The biggest misconception about AI is that it's replacing professionals.
I don't see it that way.
AI functions more like an editor or analyst sitting across the desk. It helps me work more efficiently, but it doesn't replace experience, judgment, relationships, or deal structuring.
Five years from now, I don't think the most productive brokers will be the ones using the most AI.
They'll be the ones who figured out where AI fits into their business and where it doesn't.
What AI tools are you currently using, and where have you found the most value?
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What the Multifamily Market Is Actually Telling Lenders in 2026
Multifamily fundamentals remain resilient, but the transaction recovery many expected in 2026 still hasn't arrived.
National rents increased in May and occupancy remains relatively stable, yet transaction volume is down 10.7% year-over-year. The issue isn't a lack of capital, multifamily continues to attract more investment dollars than any other CRE asset class. The challenge is...What the Multifamily Market Is Actually Telling Lenders in 2026
Multifamily fundamentals remain resilient, but the transaction recovery many expected in 2026 still hasn't arrived.
National rents increased in May and occupancy remains relatively stable, yet transaction volume is down 10.7% year-over-year. The issue isn't a lack of capital, multifamily continues to attract more investment dollars than any other CRE asset class. The challenge is that higher interest rates, valuation uncertainty, and wide bid-ask spreads are keeping many owners on the sidelines.
The report also highlights a growing divide across asset classes and markets. Workforce and Renter-by-Necessity housing continue to demonstrate defensive characteristics, while high-supply Sun Belt markets such as Austin, Phoenix, and Denver remain under pressure from elevated construction deliveries. Meanwhile, gateway and Midwest markets are posting some of the strongest rent growth in the country.
For lenders and investors, national averages tell only part of the story. Market selection, supply analysis, and asset-class positioning are becoming increasingly important as performance diverges across the multifamily landscape.
For more practical breakdowns on small-balance commercial lending and market trends, follow the Academy for Commercial Lending on LinkedIn at lnkd.in/eM_VCKVk and subscribe to The Small Balance Intersection newsletter at lnkd.in/e-T79FNx.
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Source: Yardi Matrix Multifamily National Report, May 2026.
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Chandan's Economic April data shows the independent rental market starting to stabilize.On-time rent payments increased to 84.5%, marking the sixth gain in the past seven months. Full payment rates reached 97.2%, the strongest level since May 2025.That's the improvement.Here's the part that matters.On-time payments are still down 119 basis points year over year, and late payments remain elevated in the 12% to 13% range, well above historical norm ...
A single legislative provision is doing more damage to housing supply than most market forces, with build-to-rent developers pausing projects en masse as investors and lenders exit the space ahead of any final vote.
A survey of just 14 build-to-rent firms already accounts for roughly $3.4 billion...
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New York City’s housing debate is increasingly framed as tenants vs. landlords. But a quieter shift is happening underneath it: small landlords are disappearing.
Rising costs, rent regulation changes, and new housing proposals are pushing many longtime family owners out of the market. After the...
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The latest research from Yardi Matrix shows national advertised rents averaging about $1,740 in February, with year-over-year growth slowing to roughly 0.1% as new supply enters the market and occupancy levels moderate.Much of the slowdown reflects the large number of multifamily projects delivered over the past two years, particularly across Sun Belt markets that are still absorbing newly completed units. At the same time, several gateway market ...
The February 2026 Independent Landlord Rental Performance Report from Chandan Economics points to continued stabilization across the non-institutional rental market, even as year-over-year pressure remains. On-time rent payments rose to 83.7%, extending the recovery that began after the September...
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The White House is facing resistance in Congress over President Trump’s proposal to ban large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes. Administration officials have urged Republican lawmakers to add the investor ban as an amendment to major housing bills currently moving...
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The new executive order targets institutional buyers of existing single-family homes but carves out a key exemption for the build-to-rent (BTR) sector. These developers construct entire rental communities from the ground up, often in suburban areas where land is more available. That carve-out could accelerate Wall Street's shift toward BTR, which had already been gaining traction due to management efficiencies and rising demand for suburban renta ...
According to Yardi Matrix, average asking rents fell by $1 in December to $1,718, leaving year-end rent growth at just 0.3 percent. That marks a sharp deceleration from the gains seen in 2021 and 2022 as the sector continues to digest record new supply. Occupancy held relatively firm at 94.7 percent, suggesting demand remains steady despite heavy deliveries.Roughly 445,000 new units were absorbed nationally in 2025, the highest on record. While t ...

I’ve done the weird lease lengths. It takes getting used to, when dealing with prospects. “…would you like the 11 month or 13 month option….”