Good morning wonderful professionals, I hope everyone is well. Now that the tariffs are live, let’s dive in the real estate components that will be effected.

New tariffs on essential construction materials are expected to drive up costs for both residential and commercial projects. Materials such as aluminum conduit, structural steel, lumber, and steel decking have already been experiencing inflationary pressures, with price increases of up to 12.5%...Good morning wonderful professionals, I hope everyone is well. Now that the tariffs are live, let’s dive in the real estate components that will be effected.

New tariffs on essential construction materials are expected to drive up costs for both residential and commercial projects. Materials such as aluminum conduit, structural steel, lumber, and steel decking have already been experiencing inflationary pressures, with price increases of up to 12.5% for aluminum and 11.2% for steel decking over the past year. These additional tariffs are expected to further compound these rising costs, making construction more expensive across the board.

The impact on material costs is projected to be significant, with tariffs adding another 8–30% in expenses. As a result, steel decking could see cumulative price increases of up to 29.2%, while lumber costs may rise by 23.8%, according to industry reports from Construction Dive and NAHB. For residential construction, this could translate to an added $17,000–$22,000 in the cost of building a new home. With affordability already strained due to high mortgage rates and low housing supply, these increases will further challenge prospective buyers and homebuilders alike.

On the commercial side, the tariffs are expected to raise material costs for industrial and office projects by 14–18%, tightening developer margins and potentially stalling new projects. The higher costs could slow overall construction activity, leading to fewer new developments and delays in large-scale projects. As a result, the real estate market may experience reduced housing inventory growth and a slowdown in commercial construction, impacting economic activity and investment in the sector. Show more

Good morning wonderful professionals, I hope everyone is well. The latest maturity data from MBA recently shows $4.8 trillion in outstanding commercial real estate mortgages, nearly $1 trillion is set to mature in 2025, with majority including MF and office loans.

Last year’s report indicated that $575 billion in loans were set to mature in 2025, whereas this year’s report shows $960 billion—an increase of $385 billion. This suggests that a...Good morning wonderful professionals, I hope everyone is well. The latest maturity data from MBA recently shows $4.8 trillion in outstanding commercial real estate mortgages, nearly $1 trillion is set to mature in 2025, with majority including MF and office loans.

Last year’s report indicated that $575 billion in loans were set to mature in 2025, whereas this year’s report shows $960 billion—an increase of $385 billion. This suggests that a significant portion of the commercial real estate (CRE) mortgages originally due in 2024 have been extended into 2025. In fact, of the $930 billion in CRE mortgages set to mature in 2024, 41% were pushed forward, mirroring the trend seen in 2023 when a similar proportion of loans were extended into the following year.

The question now is how much longer these extensions will continue. While prices are beginning to stabilize or, in some cases, recover, many property owners will face significant equity losses as these loans come due. However, as more of these extended deals eventually hit the market, prices will likely be more stable, allowing distressed market buyers to better assess their downside risk and participate more actively. This shift should drive higher transaction volumes throughout the year. Blood in the water? Show more

Good morning wonderful professionals, I hope everyone is well. The more you zoom in the FHA program, it may have more liabilities than benefits to the overall economic stability of the US.

The FHA loan portfolio has become increasingly risky over the years. In 2007, 35% of new FHA borrowers had debt-to-income (DTI) ratios above 43%, but by 2020, that figure had risen to 54%. As home prices and inflation surged, borrowers became more financially...Good morning wonderful professionals, I hope everyone is well. The more you zoom in the FHA program, it may have more liabilities than benefits to the overall economic stability of the US.

The FHA loan portfolio has become increasingly risky over the years. In 2007, 35% of new FHA borrowers had debt-to-income (DTI) ratios above 43%, but by 2020, that figure had risen to 54%. As home prices and inflation surged, borrowers became more financially stretched, yet the FHA continued insuring loans for those with higher debt burdens. By last year, 64% of FHA borrowers exceeded the 43% DTI threshold, making the portfolio even riskier than before the 2008 housing crisis.

Delinquencies have also surged, with 7.05% of FHA mortgages issued last year becoming seriously delinquent within 12 months—exceeding the 7.02% peak of the 2008 subprime crisis. To prevent foreclosures, the Biden administration implemented policies under the guise of COVID-19 relief, effectively masking the growing instability. Of the 52,531 FHA loans that went seriously delinquent within their first year, only nine resulted in foreclosure, as the government intervened to cover missed payments and reduce financial strain on borrowers.


The FHA introduced a program allowing mortgage servicers to add missed payments to the loan principal without interest while also paying servicers to lower monthly payments by 25% for three years. For example, a borrower missing five $4,000 payments would see $20,000 added to their loan, plus another $36,000 from payment reductions—deepening their debt by $56,000 without additional interest. This cycle benefits servicers, who receive $1,750 per restructuring and can charge legal fees, further increasing borrowers’ financial burdens. Show more

Good morning wonderful professionals, I hope everyone is well. Is 100% bonus depreciation back?

A recent public forum setting, President Trump suggested that 100% bonus depreciation could be making a comeback. This could have significant implications for business owners and real estate investors,...

Read More...

Good morning wonderful professionals, I hope everyone is well. The recent US existing home data is out.

U.S. existing home sales fell to 4.06 million in 2024, the lowest level since 1995.

For context, the U.S. population was about 70 million smaller in 1995; 266 people million then and 335 people million now.

This marks the third consecutive year of declining home sales, a trend last seen during the 2006 housing market crash and the recessions...Good morning wonderful professionals, I hope everyone is well. The recent US existing home data is out.

U.S. existing home sales fell to 4.06 million in 2024, the lowest level since 1995.

For context, the U.S. population was about 70 million smaller in 1995; 266 people million then and 335 people million now.

This marks the third consecutive year of declining home sales, a trend last seen during the 2006 housing market crash and the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s.

Adding to concerns, first-time buyers made up just 24% of all purchases in 2024, the lowest share on record.

At the same time, the median home price surged 6% to $404,400, setting a new all-time high. Show more

Good morning wonderful Professionals, I hope EVERYONE is well.

The 10-year note yield is now up 100 basis points since the Fed’s cuts in September 2024.

To put in perspective, the Fed has CUT rates by 100 bps, rates in the market have RISEN by 100 bps.

So why are interest rates rising as the Fed cuts rates?

Short answer, the markets have realized that inflation is back on the rise.

3-month annualized core CPI is nearing 4% (for perspective you...Good morning wonderful Professionals, I hope EVERYONE is well.

The 10-year note yield is now up 100 basis points since the Fed’s cuts in September 2024.

To put in perspective, the Fed has CUT rates by 100 bps, rates in the market have RISEN by 100 bps.

So why are interest rates rising as the Fed cuts rates?

Short answer, the markets have realized that inflation is back on the rise.

3-month annualized core CPI is nearing 4% (for perspective you want to be 2%< ) while PCE, PPI, and CPI inflation are all rising again.

Prior to any tariffs and tax cuts negatively impacting these metrics. Show more